It’s warming up in Kyiv. The temperature has risen from -5C to 4C. Sometimes, the sun peeps through breaks in the clouds, but Kyivites are not much cheered by the sunshine. They are not watching for signs of spring as they usually do at this time of year. The atmosphere in the city and in the country as a whole has been one of nervous expectation. This was not an expectation of an end to military action or the signing of a peace treaty with Russia – nothing so specific. Indeed, it was not at all clear what we were waiting for, but it was something connected with Donald Trump and the change in US policy towards Ukraine.
Clarity emerged at today’s macabre theatre at the White House: handshakes, a thumbs up and some fist pumps from the US president, before Trump sat side by side with Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss a minerals-for-war-support deal and to humiliate him. At the same time, air raid sirens were sounding in northern and eastern Ukraine. Soon the talks were off and Zelenskyy was gone.
What proceeded, in front of TV cameras, was chilling, extraordinary. Zelenskyy grave, angry, desperate – as befits a leader being obliged to bargain away his nation’s birthright. Trump claiming to be the honest broker, saying: “I am not aligned with anybody. I am aligned with the world.” Be thankful, he tells a man who has seen his people murdered, his territory captured and besieged. “Make a deal or we’re out.”
It got worse. Zelenskyy showed him photos of war atrocities. “I think President Trump is on our side,” he said, with no genuine hope and certainly no expectation that that was true. The vice-president, JD Vance, attacked Zelenskyy for being disrespectful. Both Trump and Vance verbally pummelled him for the cameras, for this is the art of the deal now: loaded, hectoring, callous, bloodless.
But then Ukrainians’ belief in a concrete proposal from Trump to end the war had already been replaced by the conviction that the president had no such plan, but rather, many different ideas about US involvement in the region – ideas that often relate to Ukraine, but sometimes conflict with each other and are never focused on supporting a country that is a victim of Russian aggression.
During the past two weeks, we have watched as the issue of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war has transformed into the issue of rare earth metal mining in our country. As it turned out, in Saudi Arabia the participants in the Russian-US negotiations also discussed the extraction of rare earth metals, only they focused on resources in Russian territories and in the occupied territories of Ukraine. These rare earth metals have pushed the topic of the war and military aid to Ukraine out of the media space. That space is filled with dollars now.
Older Ukrainians, who grew up in the Soviet Union, have recognised in this situation the US that was depicted by Soviet propaganda cartoons as a nation of greedy, irresponsible, grab-what-you-can capitalists, who spat on complex problems and had eyes only for dollar superprofits.
This is an existential war, and a new reality. Trump says Zelenskyy is “not ready for peace”, but Ukraine has no choice but to fight on, whatever the cost. Aid that was previously given for nothing must now be bought. If there is no money, then it is necessary to pay with resources. After three years of full-scale Russian aggression, US geopolitical interests in Ukraine have been replaced by financial interests. Instead of the politician President Biden, the businessman President Trump has entered the arena.
Note that the US proposal on the extraction of rare earth metals in Ukraine, if realised, would allow the US side to sign a similar agreement with Russia and start digging without waiting for the end of hostilities. The notion is an “investment fund”, managed by the US and Ukraine on “equal terms”, into which Ukraine would contribute 50% of future proceeds from state-owned mineral resources, oil and gas “to promote the safety, security and prosperity of Ukraine”. Trump insists it is “very fair”.
Would such an agreement encourage Russia to cease its aggression? No! Does it contain security guarantees for Ukraine? It seems not. Does Ukraine have any choice? Debatable.
In this situation, Britain and the EU become much more important partners for Ukraine than before. While organising favourable access to Ukrainian resources for the US, Trump hopes to hand over to Europe and Britain responsibility for Ukraine’s security in the event of a cessation of hostilities, and responsibility for further military assistance. Given this, it is by no means clear what advantage such an agreement on rare earth metals would give Ukraine.
Trump’s claims that US mining on Ukrainian territory will be a sufficient guarantee of Ukraine’s security because Russia will not risk attacking US economic interests do not stand up to criticism. The Chinese state-owned COFCO corporation invested in a new grain and oil handling complex in Ukraine’s Mykolaiv port, but Chinese involvement did not protect the port from being targeted by Russian missiles. It has not been operational since March 2022 and the region is losing about 40% of its revenues.
The fact that Trump has been so complimentary about Vladimir Putin, and so hostile to Zelenskyy, says everything. “I think he will keep his word,” Trump assured the world. “I have known him for a long time.” Trump’s phrase that peace will be achieved “fairly soon or it won’t happen at all” indicates that he will not waste too much time on negotiations with Putin if they drag on, or if Putin puts forward conditions that are unacceptable to Ukraine. Some conditions have already been announced by Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, who reminded us that Russia still plans to seize the entirety of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Zelenskyy was brave, but we are supplicants now. Trump and the Kremlin have made it abundantly clear that Ukraine’s participation in these negotiations between the US and Russia is not necessary or desirable. Like so much else, the principle announced by Biden, “Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”, has been trampled underfoot. Zelenskyy was called to the White House to sign, but not speak.
Trump has had his way. He has transformed Ukraine from a subject into an object, and after this White House humiliation some Ukrainians are convinced that the extraction of rare earth metals on Trump’s terms would turn our country into a “colony” of the US. Still, many Ukrainians would prefer to live in a US colony than in a Russian one, if that’s the choice.
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Andrey Kurkov is a Ukrainian novelist and the author of Death and the Penguin