صاحب‌خبر - Good morning. Donald Trump’s view of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un: “The smartest one gets to the top”. Donald Trump’s view of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who won Ukraine’s presidency in a landslide, enjoys continued popular support, and had to postpone new elections because his country was, as you will remember, invaded: he’s a dictator. Zelenskyy earned that astonishing designation yesterday by rejecting Trump’s claims that he is very unpopular, that Ukraine brought the invasion on itself, and that to be considered a legitimate leader he must hold new elections even under the threat of Russian attack. At a press conference in Kyiv, Zelenskyy said: “Unfortunately, President Trump, with all due respect for him as the leader of a nation that we respect greatly … is trapped in this disinformation bubble”. And he added: “I would like to have more truth with the Trump team.” Trump’s language in response – he also told Zelenskyy that he had “better move fast” or he “won’t have a country left” – made his preference for Moscow over Kyiv unmistakable. But Zelenskyy – who found support from Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch as well as European leaders in the aftermath of Trump’s diatribe – is right that the US president’s rhetoric is based on a nonsensical misrepresentation of reality. Today’s newsletter, with Orysia Lutsevych, the head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, explains why Ukraine hasn’t held an election in a long time, and why that doesn’t make Zelenskyy an illegitimate leader. Here are the headlines. Five big stories Bills | The companies behind Great Britain’s gas pipes and power lines have pocketed a windfall of nearly £4bn from household bills during the energy and cost crisis, according to a report. The analysis, by Citizens Advice, argued that energy network owners were able to make the “excess profits” over the past four years after the industry regulator misjudged their costs. Brazil | British journalist Charlotte Alice Peet, 32, has been missing in Brazil for 11 days, a foreign correspondents’ association in the country has said, urging authorities to step up their search efforts. Peet has worked as a freelance journalist for outlets such as the Independent, Times, Telegraph and Al Jazeera. Immigration and asylum | Plans to prevent refugees who arrive in the UK on a small boat, lorry or via other “irregular” means from becoming a British citizen are facing their first legal challenge. The case is being brought by a 21-year-old Afghan refugee who arrived in the UK aged 14, after fleeing the Taliban and being smuggled to Britain in the back of a lorry. Sellafield | The UK nuclear industry regulator has taken Sellafield, the world’s largest store of plutonium, out of special measures for its physical security – but said concerns remained over its cybersecurity. In 2023, the Guardian revealed a string of safety concerns at the site – from issues with alarm systems to problems staffing safety roles at its toxic ponds – as well as cybersecurity failings. Politics | Boris Johnson is charging £121 for a handshake and a photograph before a live event in Edinburgh. The former Conservative prime minister will appear at the Usher Hall on 2 September for an event titled An Evening with Boris Johnson, which will also allow guests to take part in a question and answer session. In depth: ‘Very few leaders have as much support as Zelenskyy’ View image in fullscreen Volodymyr Zelenskyy with the prime minister of Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, touring the streets of Odesa, Ukraine in 2024. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images If Russia had not invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Volodymyr Zelenskyy would have faced a re-election campaign in spring 2024. But after Vladimir Putin sent his troops across the border, the country quickly entered a state of martial law. That meant that both presidential and parliamentary elections were postponed. That is, clearly, not an ideal democratic situation. But it is hard to conceive of a more robust justification than the circumstances Ukraine has faced over the past three years – and many of the obstacles to elections that the war has erected will not instantly disappear when a ceasefire agreement is signed. Why hasn’t Ukraine held elections since the war began? Under Ukraine’s constitution, it is not legal to hold national elections during a period of martial law. This Foreign Policy article from 2023 outlines practical impediments that largely still hold today. The disruption from air raids has made organisation and vote counting impossible, as well as bringing obvious risks if large numbers have to congregate at polling stations. Voters in the eastern areas worst affected by the war – or occupied – would be disenfranchised against those living in the west. After mass internal displacement and many people leaving the country altogether, there is no system in place for absentee voting and no recent update to the national voter registry. And any resources spent on resolving these issues are taken away from the country’s defence. Even if a ceasefire is agreed, “there is a broad political consensus that there should not be elections earlier than six months after the lifting of martial law”, Orysia Lutsevych said. “And I suspect that martial law will not be lifted quickly if a ceasefire is signed, because of fears that the Russians could break it at any time.” Is Zelenskyy unpopular? Donald Trump’s claim that Zelenskyy has a 4% approval rating appears to have been conjured from thin air: the only suggestion of any source for that figure comes from Russian media outlets citing a “poll” conducted by Zelenskyy critic Oleksandr Dubinsky among his (deeply unrepresentative) Telegram followers. Wherever he plucked it from, the number doesn’t align at all with the credible available evidence. Zelenskyy himself suggested yesterday that the 4% figure was “disinformation, we understand it’s coming from Russia”. It is true that Zelenskyy’s ratings are a bit lower than they were at the very peak of his popularity, in the early months of the war, when some polls put him at 90% (against a low of 25% prewar). But that would be entirely unsurprising to anyone who has tracked the popularity of leaders in periods of crisis in the past, and is consistent with, for example, George W Bush after 9/11, who went on to win a second term. The most recent available poll shows Zelenskyy at 57% – still an extremely high approval rating when set against his peers across Europe, and certainly higher than Trump’s. “Very few leaders have as much support as Zelenskyy,” Lutsevych said. “There is no sign of that support collapsing. It seemed pretty clear at his press conference yesterday that he was confident about this, and confident that he has the support of the public and the parliament.” None of this is to say that Zelenskyy is a nailed-on winner as and when an election is called – but we might also note that if he was truly only interested in his own political survival, he might have tried to go ahead with the scheduled election at the height of his popularity. “Even now, he will believe that he can run on the basis of being Ukraine’s defender and have an excellent chance,” Lutsevych said. Why do Russia and the US want elections as a matter of urgency? There is little reason to think that Moscow has any interest in Ukraine other than instability and the dilution of national unity behind the war effort. “They will only agree to a ceasefire if they are able to continue war by other means,” Lutsevych said. “They want a divided society, and they are skilled at this kind of interference. They would prefer not to have Zelenskyy there because he is trusted in Europe, and anyone who replaces him would be starting from scratch.” In the past – before Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014 – there was a sizeable pro-Russian constituency in Ukrainian politics. But that has largely gone away now, and indeed several pro-Russian parties have been banned. Even those who would remain in that constituency largely live in areas that would likely be under Russian control in any ceasefire, and therefore unable to vote. There is little prospect of a government sympathetic to Moscow taking charge in the foreseeable future. At the same time, Lutsevych said, candidates might emerge who are preferable to Russian interests. “You can imagine a ‘pro-peace, pro-normalisation’ candidate,” Lutsevych said. “They would likely be someone very well separated from the old pro-Russian parties, and they could hijack the discourse. It’s not obvious who that is at the moment, but it’s possible.” Of course, when Ukraine gets back to something like a non-emergency state, they will have every right to take their chances alongside other candidates. Trump, that reliable supporter of [checks notes] respecting democratic norms, was careful to say that his position was “not a Russian thing” and that other countries agreed. It is hard to identify any country saying it other than Russia, though, and certainly not calling Zelenskyy a dictator. “Trump appears to trust Putin,” Lutsevych said. “He is not really interested in internal Ukrainian politics: he wants to establish geopolitical cooperation with Moscow so that he can move on to other strategic objectives, and he’s ready to remove any obstacle to do that.” What do Ukrainians think? The question of whether Ukrainians are demanding fresh elections is separate to the question of Zelenskyy’s popularity – but on this, too, there is little evidence of any mood of public outrage. Polls throughout the war have found comfortable majorities supporting the idea that elections should not be held until martial law comes to an end. Trump’s intervention is unlikely to change that fact. “If anything it will probably create the opposite result,” Lutsevych said. “And people are comfortable that they are still living in a democracy. “The proof of that is that even under war conditions there are political debates, and people who criticise Zelenskyy publicly. There is independent media, local self-governance, and the right to freedom of assembly. People rally on issues from funding for the armed forces to calling for more information about prisoners of war.” All of that obviously stands in stark contrast to the repressive system in place in Russia. What would a new election look like? skip past newsletter promotion Sign up to First Edition Free daily newsletter Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what’s happening and why it matters Enter your email address Sign upPrivacy Notice: Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. after newsletter promotion When the time comes, Zelenskyy may face credible opposition from someone like Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the four-star general who is now ambassador to the UK. He enjoys high approval ratings of his own, and was sacked after a widely publicised rift with his boss, complaining about “the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces”. There will be huge challenges to the emergence of something like normal democracy in Ukraine, though. “There are big questions about how the pro-democratic opposition to Zelenskyy organises itself – they don’t have the infrastructure of party activists and resources,” Lutsevych said. “Whatever happens, it is likely that veterans of the war will be prominent in politics and shape the agenda. There are lots of problems with how you rebuild Ukraine and guarantee its future security.” Biting though all of those issues are, they do not suggest that Zelenskyy is anything like a dictator. What else we’ve been reading View image in fullscreen Composite: Guardian Design; Johny87; Creative-Family; Peter Dazeley/Getty Images Sirin Kale’s investigation into a rogue lettings agency destroying homes by turning them into cannabis farms is a gobsmacking whodunnit, brilliantly told, that sheds light on a wider policing failure to pursue such crimes beyond the immigrants who are coerced into working at the coal face. Archie Bethan McKernan travelled across Syria, through Idlib, Aleppo, Homs and Damascus, to speak with people about their cautious hopes for the future of their country: “After 13 years of sacrifice, blood and exile, the appetite for freedom that fuelled Syria’s popular revolution has endured,” she writes. Nimo Friend Of The Newsletter Cas Mudde has an excellent primer on the German elections, and why there is very little chance that likely new chancellor Friedrich Merz will return Germany to the European leadership role it held under Angela Merkel. Archie A few years ago the Conservative Political Action Conference (Cpac) was seen as a space exclusively for “extremist freak show[s]”. With Donald Trump back in office it is more politically relevant than ever. David Smith goes through what to expect. Nimo In Australia, higher education has changed dramatically. The increasing focus on digital-first learning has left lecture halls and campuses emptier than ever before. Caitlin Cassidy spoke with academics about why they worry that these changes are only going to degrade the quality of learning for students. Nimo Sport View image in fullscreen Kylian Mbappé celebrates his hat-trick with three fingers raised. Photograph: Fantasista/Getty Images Champions League | Manchester City were knocked out of the tournament after a hat-trick from Kylian Mbappé (above) at the Bernabéu demolished Pep Guardiola’s side 3-1 on the night and sent Real Madrid through 6-3 on aggregate. Tennis | Emma Raducanu has insisted “I’ll be OK” after the behaviour of a male spectator caused the British tennis star to pause a match in tears and raised again the issue of security for female athletes. Raducanu was forced to alert officials to the presence of an individual in the stands who had accosted her earlier in the tournament. Premier League | Liverpool and Aston Villa swapped the lead at Villa Park in an oscillating contest before Trent Alexander-Arnold secured a 2-2 draw. The front pages View image in fullscreen The Guardian’s splash headline today is “Trump deepens rift with Ukraine by labelling Zelenskyy ‘a dictator’”, and the same story leads the rest of the front pages. “Trump appals world with ‘dictator’ blast at Zelensky” says the Daily Mail while the Express has “‘Shameful’ Trump attack stuns world”. In the i it’s “Trump calls Zelensky a ‘dictator’ as rift grows over peace talks” and the Telegraph goes with “Trump attacks ‘dictator’ Zelensky”. “Trump calls Zelenskyy a ‘dictator’ in deepening rancour over Russia talks” – that’s the Financial Times while the Mirror goes with “To Ukraine with love … Starmer calls Zelensky to pledge UK’s support after deranged Trump calls him ‘dictator’”. In a similarly supportive vein the Times says “Zelensky is no dictator, Starmer tells Trump”. Today in Focus View image in fullscreen Protesters wave flags and hold a poster of Hassan Nasrallah, the late leader of Hezbollah, at a rally in Beirut. Photograph: Ibrahim Amro/AFP/Getty Images On the ground in a new Lebanon Israel’s war has left many Lebanese people contemplating what once seemed unimaginable: is Hezbollah finished? Michael Safi reports from Beirut Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings View image in fullscreen Illustration: Ben Jennings/The Guardian The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad View image in fullscreen Edward Byemba (far left) and Victor Aluonzi (far right) with students under the fig tree where the idea of Bidi Bidi Performing Arts Centre was born. Photograph: Mark Ochieng The Bidi Bidi Performing Arts Centre in Uganda offers hope and healing to young refugees through music and creative expression. Built in Africa’s largest refugee settlement, it provides a space for young people to nurture their talents and process trauma. Supported by NGOs and philanthropists, the centre fosters transformation beyond the arts – encouraging social cohesion, economic growth, and conflict resolution. “People flee conflict and find that even within the settlement there is conflict. They experience conflict within themselves. Conflict with other refugees. Conflict with host communities. We had to find a way to handle all this conflict,” says Victor Aluonzi, a music teacher at the arts centre. Moses Modi, a musician, dreams of returning to South Sudan one day; in the meantime his music helps him remember home. “I joined Bidi Bidi arts centre because music is a universal language. Instead of fighting, we have dance competitions. People show off their culture and they are happy. We can cause change and be happy,” Modi says. Bored at work? And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. Quick crossword Cryptic crossword Wordiply∎​