The trailer for Netflix’s latest multimillion-dollar venture starts with a dramatic drumbeat, the slap of glove on pad, and a familiar Brooklyn drawl. “He’s a manufactured killer,” says Mike Tyson, with almost cartoon relish. “I am a natural-born killer.”
The camera then cuts to the man he will face in the early hours of Saturday UK time, the influencer Jake Paul. “We’re going to war,” predicts Paul, who made his fortune filming pranks such as I Sunk My Friend’s Car And Surprised Him With A New One before an even more lucrative pivot into boxing. “And he’s getting knocked out.”
Forget the fact that Tyson is 58 and has not fought professionally since quitting on his stool against Kevin McBride nearly 20 years ago. Or that the 27-year-old Paul is a relative novice, who lost to the Love Island star Tommy Fury last year. More than 60,000 fans are expected to flock to the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas to watch the fight in person, with millions more streaming it online.
But as the two men prepare to square off over eight two-minute rounds in exchange, rumours suggest, for more than $20m (£15.5m) each, the questions linger starkly in the Texas air. Is this merely a grisly pantomime? Or should it be seen as a harbinger of what lies ahead? And, more intriguing, why is Netflix throwing millions at this meeting of boxing’s old world with its new YouTube iteration? Especially when almost everyone in the sport believes it is a terrible idea.
Mike Tyson and Jake Paul clash in Arlington, Texas Photograph: John Ricard/Shutterstock
Barry McGuigan, who was in his prime 40 years ago, sums up boxing’s unease particularly eloquently. “I’m 63 and Tyson’s only five years behind me,” he tells the Observer. “So the idea of him boxing any guy, even if he’s only ordinary, is just so wrong at that age. You are your reputation. That’s what people remember. And I remember Mike Tyson as a wrecking machine.
“He really was one of the most dangerous heavyweights that ever laced on gloves. There’s no doubt about that. And I don’t want people to say in 20 years’ time: ‘Oh, that’s that guy that had that sham of a fight with that YouTuber.’”
McGuigan is generous to Paul, saying he can “obviously box a bit”. But that, for him, makes the risks even greater. “A 58-year-old man shouldn’t be fighting,” he adds. “He just shouldn’t. At that age your punch resistance invariably disappears. And while we see all these clips of Tyson doing the pads, that’s not real. What’s real is sparring against good quality opposition and seeing how you look then. You can be sure he’s not doing that given his age.”
A very different perspective is offered by Adam Kelly, president of media at the global sports marketing agency IMG. Kelly accepts there are doubters, but predicts that Tyson v Paul has “the potential to break some of the all-time best ratings, and be one of the most viewed boxing matches of all time”.
Those are strong words, and they carry even more weight given that Kelly was part of the Floyd Mayweather versus Conor McGregor promotion in 2017, which was a pay-per-view smash and led the way for other crossover matches. In his current role, he also speaks regularly to major sports, organisations and broadcasters such as Netflix about how sport could look in the future.
For Kelly, this fight is a part of the next iteration of how we will watch sport. The first came through commercial TV and advertising. The second from pay TV. This third wave is being powered by Netflix, Amazon, Apple and Google with YouTube.
Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather in action in 2017. Photograph: Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile/Getty Images
“Sport is a major part of the attention economy, and these guys are the most effective in turning attention into earnings,” he says. “So what they’ll be able to do better than the existing players, is monetise audiences each and every time they watch.”
Tyson versus Paul is, in effect, the opening salvo for Netflix before its broadcast of live NFL Christmas Day games, World Wrestling Entertainment events next year and potential live sports in the future. So how can companies such as Netflix and Amazon compete with monthly charges from Sky or high pay-per-view fees? “I think one of the challenges sport faces is direct monetisation from fans is kind of tapped out, to use an MMA expression,” says Kelly. “But in the attention economy, of which sport is a key part, there are lots of other ways in which engagement and audience can convert into earnings for companies.
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“For instance, can Amazon convert attention on sport into additional retail opportunities and channel even more spend to its online shopping? And can Netflix expand and enhance their advertising platform, which is already significant and growing?”
As Kelly points out, Netflix is approaching 300m households with its total subscriber base, as well as heading north of 50m on their ad-funded lower cost tier. “And from their earnings, they believe those figures have significant potential to grow, and they will ultimately deliver a different model from simply having to charge sports fans more money, while also driving more earnings and more income into the game,” he says.
“The same is true for the other major tech companies. And if you draw these elements together, you can start to see something that’s not an aberration. It’s more of an upcoming trend.”
“I think we will look back at this and think: ‘Well, this is the moment when Netflix caught fire when it comes to sport’,” he adds. “They are really pushing it. And I think it will be one of the biggest fights that has ever been broadcast.”
Many in boxing remain sceptical. The promoter Eddie Hearn has criticised the fight, calling it “dangerous, irresponsible and disrespectful to boxing” and ticket sales are said to have been sluggish. While McGuigan also fears the worst when the fight begins. “I hope that it’s proper, and it’s not a load of choreographed nonsense,” he says. “And I hope it’s for real. But if Tyson in his 20s hit Jake Paul he would have put him in hospital for a week. Not now because he’s an old man.”
However, as Kelly points out, the critics were also out in force before Mayweather fought McGregor. “Boxing aficionados will tell you that McGregor was a terrible boxer, but I was there in Vegas, and it was exciting, and people bought into the fight in every single way,” he says. “I think this will be similar.
“With that fight we were able to bring these two superstars from quite different audience groups together. It was the biggest pay-per-view global boxing event of all time [behind only Mayeather v Manny Pacquiao] and it kickstarted a trend where you saw the misfits, the influencers – the likes of Logan Paul, Jake Paul, KSI and others – began to realise that a lot of people will pay to experience a different sort of event.”
Make no mistake, it will be no different when Tyson returns to the ring. Some will tune in hope of seeing the former heavyweight champion deliver one final chilling knockout. Others because Netflix’s algorithm has lured them in, or simply because they are curious about what will happen next. As one commenter on the official trailer on YouTube put it: “Is this dumb? Yes. Will I watch? Yes.” The reaction that followed suggested that plenty of others felt the same way.
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