Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to fire his defence minister, Yoav Gallant, removes one of the harshest critics from his own government and empowers members of the far-right and ultra-Orthodox interests in Israel to key positions in Netanyahu’s cabinet.

By all accounts, the key causes for Gallant’s departure lie in domestic Israeli politics: the two men’s disagreements over a hostage deal with Hamas, Gallant’s opposition to blanket exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews from service in the IDF, and over a leaking scandal involving a close aide to Netanyahu.

But Gallant’s departure also comes at a crucial moment: the day of a US presidential election that will determine the nature of continued US support for Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as leniency toward Israeli policy in the West Bank and a potential escalation with Iran.

In many ways, Gallant’s sacking is the first step to clear the decks for an unclear new relationship with the US – either with a Kamala Harris administration that will probably continue support for Israel in an environment of deep distrust and growing criticism over the deaths of Palestinians, or a highly unpredictable Donald Trump administration that has vowed to back Israel to “finish the job” despite a fraught personal relationship between the two men.

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And for the lame duck Biden administration, the firing also erases one of the strongest relationships between Israel and Washington further ensuring that the White House will struggle to restrain Netanyahu or secure a landmark cessation of hostilities before the US presidential inauguration in January.

US officials were surprised by Netanyahu’s decision to fire Gallant, who has been one of the most important conduits to the US government via the defence secretary, Lloyd Austin. The two men are said to speak almost daily, and had helped repair some confidence in the relationship after Israel had surprised the US with the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.

When Netanyahu previously sought to fire Gallant in 2023, the decision sparked both protests at home and a note of “deep concern” from the White House. And when Netanyahu told Gallant to cancel a trip to the United States last month before Israel’s response to an Iranian ballistic missiles attack, a defence department spokeswoman said she would not discuss the decision to avoid entangling herself in “Israeli politics”.

“They have a good relationship with each other,” Sabrina Singh, the defence spokesperson, said of Gallant and Austin, adding that the two men had spoken to each other a “ballpark” 80 times. “They can pick up the phone at any time, at any hour of the night and speak very candidly to each other.”

The journalist Bob Woodward recently described the deep distrust between the Netanyahu and Biden administrations, saying that Biden had told close aides that “18 of the 19 people who work for Netanyahu are liars”. Israeli media have speculated that Gallant was the sole Israeli official who was still trusted in Washington.

In the run-up to the Israeli response to Iran, the two men were in close contact – Austin had told Gallant the US fully supported Israel in its standoff with Tehran and the men also “discussed the opportunities that now exist to use diplomacy to dial down tensions in the region”.

It is widely understood that US policy with Israel is at a turning point with neither side clear on whether a Trump presidency would continue any of the policies enforced under Biden and his state department.

Austin and the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, on 13 October sent a letter to Israel that demanded it improve humanitarian conditions within Gaza within 30 days or risk having some US military assistance cut off. The Biden administration has been reluctant to take any firm steps in terms of cutting aid off to Israel, so the letter marked a potential watershed with respect to US policy.

But the deadline comes after the election of the next US president and it is likely that if Trump wins, Netanyahu will simply ignore the ultimatum. And, at the same time, Gallant’s ousting does not suggest that Netanyahu is looking to make concessions to a Biden administration that is soon to be on its way out.