Is that, then, it? On the first weekend of November, is Arsenal’s Premier League title challenge over for another season? Perhaps not quite, because Rodri’s absence and Arne Slot’s inexperience in the Premier League mean this could be an unusual campaign even before the possible consequences of the charges against Manchester City are taken into account. But if Arsenal are to win the league for the first time in 21 years, it is going to take a monumental improvement and, at the moment, they look a side who have lost their way and self-belief.

As a rule of thumb, in this era it takes a minimum of 90 points to win the Premier League. That means teams can only afford to drop 24; Arsenal have already dropped 12 – which is to say half what they can lose with a quarter of the season played. It’s true that the fixture list has not been kind, that they have already played their away games against Manchester City, Aston Villa, Tottenham and Newcastle, but still, their margin for error in the 28 games that remain is extremely limited.

Arsenal have six points fewer after 10 games this season than they did last, and nine points fewer than they had the season before. But it’s not just results, it’s performances. And having taken only one point from their past three league games, Arsenal travel next Sunday to Chelsea. With Nottingham Forest to come at home the game after, this feels like a crunch stage.

This was a game lost in the 12th minute as Anthony Gordon arced in a perfect cross for Alexander Isak to head in – the advantage of having a right-footed winger, perhaps, playing unfashionably on the right. It was a glorious cross and a decisive header. To an extent it was just one of those things, an extremely good goal. But on the other hand, Arsenal have become a club to whom those things keep on happening – and there were always elements that could have been done better.

Thomas Partey’s clearing header put the ball back into a central area just outside the box, gifting possession to Isak. Gordon crossed first-time, but still, he was given a remarkable window to measure his delivery; could Jurriën Timber or Gabriel Martinelli have done more to apply pressure? And Isak was unchallenged, wandering into the surprisingly large gap between Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba. A fine goal, yes, but enabled by three moments of laxity. It is six league games since Arsenal kept a clean sheet, the vaunted defence of last season in danger of becoming a memory.

But it was a game lost also in Oslo on 9 September as Martin Ødegaard damaged ankle ligaments playing for Norway. Without him, there is a lack of creativity in midfield, no brain to pull the other parts of the side together. The quasi-4-4-2 with which Arsenal set up on Saturday looked blockish and unconvincing. As at Bournemouth in their previous away game, they created very little. There were a couple of set plays that led to shots in a crowded box, plus Declan Rice’s late header from Bukayo Saka’s cross but, that aside, Newcastle held Arsenal at arm’s length with relative comfort.

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While acknowledging that Manchester City’s resources are far greater, meaning that they had been riding out the injuries to Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne with less drama until Saturday’s defeat at Bournemouth, that does bring scrutiny on to Arsenal’s recruitment. The season before last Arsenal’s title challenge ran out of steam as Ødegaard wearied; the need to provide back-up was obvious. There was a thought Kai Havertz might do that, but he is now apparently a confirmed forward. Mikel Merino is not the same sort of midfielder. Fábio Vieira, who cost £35m in 2022, started five league games and is on loan at Porto. Emile Smith Rowe is at Fulham. Perhaps another left-back/centre-back wasn’t the priority in the summer.

And then there’s the psychological impact of Ødegaard’s absence, which seems to have driven Arsenal into an increasingly defensive posture that, paradoxically, has made them worse at defending. Ødegaard’s injury has become part of the wider Arsenal persecution complex. And in that sense this game was lost on the corresponding weekend a year ago; lost 1-0 at Newcastle to Gordon’s controversial goal, which seemed to tip Arteta and most of the club with him into full conspiracy mode.

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That in turn contributed to the oddly spiky buildup this week and perhaps to the frustration that led to four Arsenal players being booked after half-time for dissent or petulant fouls. Arteta has even acknowledged that his own emotional behaviour has not helped, but there remains about this Arsenal a mystifying culture of entitlement, a tendency to lose their duels, an inability to ride out adversity.

Perhaps they have been unfortunate at times recently but, at some point, title winners have to get the job done. And Arsenal do not do that.