‘It ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings” – that well-known if dated American sporting adage – may afford Kamala Harris a little comfort in the final, testing days leading up to the US presidential election on 5 November. The contest is too close to call. That has been the case for weeks, if not months. The latest national poll averages, putting Harris and her Republican rival, Donald Trump, on roughly 48 points each, confirm it. The deadlock extends to the seven most closely fought battleground or swing states.

And yet, in recent days, the impression, the feeling, the fear – call it what you will – has been growing that Trump may have the edge. Maybe the Democrats are scaring themselves unnecessarily. Maybe it’s media hype. Maybe it’s true. What is certain is that this nail-biter is going down to the wire. We hope, when it’s over, that there will be plenty to sing about – and that Harris will become the first woman and woman of colour to be elected president of the United States.

If Harris pulls it off, it will be a remarkable achievement, a success against the odds. Due to the unexpected implosion of President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign in July, triggered by concerns about his age and mental fitness, her campaign has been unusually short-lived. As vice-president, Harris was best placed to take on the Democratic party’s nomination, and she did so with aplomb. Her national profile rose spectacularly overnight.

Yet she was handicapped from the start by the unpopular Biden’s legacy and her inability, or unwillingness, to distance herself from his record. Harris has also struggled with perceptions that she lacks political savvy, is a relative unknown who is vague and uncertain on the issues, and that she failed as vice-president, or so Republicans claim, to curb illegal cross-border migration.

A happy knack of connecting

These doubts have not been entirely dispelled in the ensuing three months. Harris comes across as a likable, energetic, trustworthy and inclusive politician. Confounding criticism that she speaks in “word salads”, she bested Trump in their only live TV debate, to the extent he declined a return bout. Harris seems to have the happy knack of connecting on a personal level with people she meets. She radiates joy, humour and humility.

Yet Harris is no big-picture stateswoman, no powerfully impressive, slightly off-putting figure like Hillary Clinton, who lost to Trump in 2016. Nor is she charismatic like Barack Obama. Her national approval ratings are historically low. And that points, in part, to the largely hidden question of how her gender may affect the outcome. Polls show Trump doing better among men, especially white men. Women and minorities lean to Harris, though less so this year. So while it’s evident this election will be no slam dunk, to use another American sports metaphor, it’s equally plain that Harris, if elected, would make a decent, honest, possibly trail-blazing president, a strong ally for Britain, and an unexceptional but reliable leader of the democratic world.

None of this may be said of Trump – and this, really, is all that matters at this moment. This is the crux around which the election turns. American voters may think they have a choice. But if they value their democracy, if they value their laws, institutions and constitution, if they value personal liberty, their country’s safety and international peace and security, indeed if they hope ever to vote again, then they really do not. The only choice is Harris.

A retribution presidency

An exaggeration? Not at all. Trump has a plan for a second term that could make his first spell in the Oval Office – when his former chief of staff, John Kelly, says he behaved like a fascist – look normal. Narcissistic Trump says it will be a retribution presidency. For him it’s all about getting even. Yet, if it happens, it will also be about abuse of power on a scale never before seen in America.

Just look at what he’s promising: mass deportations of immigrants; the jailing of political opponents and anyone he dislikes; the use of the US military against civilians, loosely defined as “enemies within”; officially approved vigilantism; and the abandoning, again, of the Paris climate agreement.

Trump’s stated agenda includes possible, devastating military action to destroy the cities of hostile countries such as Iran; the deserting of US allies such as Britain and Ukraine and the appeasing of Vladimir Putin’s Russia; a likely global trade war involving punitive import tariffs, principally aimed at China; and, overall, utter disregard for America’s treaty obligations, global responsibilities, international law and the UN system.

Even if Trump does not do half of what he threatens, victory for him would be a disaster for America and the world – and this time, there will be few if any “adults in the room” to restrain him. His first victim could be US democracy, targeted on 6 January 2021 by his Maga mobsters, and now once again in his sights. Basically, Trump wants to change federal, state and local rules to ensure future elections produce the “right” results.

Trump appears only too happy to further subvert the supreme court and the justice department in pursuit of this objective. Abortion rights, a key issue for Harris, will be further eroded if Trump wins, cheered on by conservative Christian evangelicals and Republican-led state legislatures. And human rights in general will suffer, whether they be those of migrants and their families, black men and other minorities, or gay and trans people. Free speech and independent journalism will also be at risk. Trump cannot abide contradiction. He demands sycophancy or silence.

The prospect of Trump #2 should make America’s allies tremble. This is the man who kowtowed to Russian, North Korean and Saudi dictators, tore up the landmark Iran nuclear deal, threatened to quit Nato and rowed constantly with Europe’s leaders. Trump encouraged Israel’s hard-right prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to ignore the Palestinians, cut money-making deals with Gulf Arabs and call it peace.

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Trump’s past stupidity and cupidity played a big role in stoking the Middle East crisis, which has escalated with Israel’s latest bombing of Iran. On China, America’s most important global relationship, Trump promises only greater confrontation, especially after last week’s revelations that Chinese hackers targeted him and his weird running mate, JD Vance. On Ukraine, his policy is betrayal and surrender.

All this can and must be avoided, yet America’s friends and allies, looking on powerlessly (despite the well-intentioned interventions of some Labour party activists), have no say in heading off disaster. Nor, in effect, do most Americans, because of the anachronistic, scandalously unreformed electoral college system. The Harris-Trump result in at least 40 of the 50 states is a foregone conclusion.

Brutal, desperate personal attacks

This election may pivot on choices made by a few thousand people in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona. It could be that, as happened to Clinton in 2016, Harris wins the national popular vote but loses the electoral college. Or this wacky system could produce the opposite result. It’s estimated that about 15% of voters remain undecided. That’s more than enough to settle the outcome. It’s still all up for grabs.

It’s going to get frantic. It could be terrifying. Expect bread and butter economic issues – food prices, jobs and housing – along with abortion and migration to dominate the final days, not weighty questions of governance, ethics and foreign policy. And expect ever more brutal, desperate personal attacks as each candidate demonises the other.

This behaviour comes naturally to Trump. Not so Harris, though that will not stop her doubling down on her justified belief that this unhinged convicted felon, ageing roué, and most divisive, immoral and vindictive of politicians is indeed a fascist who cares only for himself and will sacrifice democracy, liberty and the constitution in an egotistic orgy of self-worship. Harris will doubtless remind voters, too, that Trump is again refusing to promise to accept the result if he loses. Endless, vexatious litigation and furious disputes are a certainty. Violence is a distinct possibility.

It’s ironic – but those Americans who truly believe in democracy really have no choice at all on 5 November. The US remains a great country. It has many strengths. It also has many problems. Trump is not the answer. He will only make it worse. Vote Harris!