It’s blindingly obvious Benjamin Netanyahu does not want a ceasefire in Gaza or Lebanon or anywhere else – not yet, at least. The Biden administration and Keir Starmer’s government can persist with the politically convenient fiction that last week’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has opened a window to peace if they must. But it’s nonsense. Israel’s prime minister violently rampages about like a drunken hooligan armed with a stack of US and UK-supplied bricks. He loves the sound of breaking glass.
The unpalatable truth is Netanyahu, his far-right allies and dismayingly large numbers of Israeli citizens believe, foolishly, that they are winning the war that Hamas began on 7 October last year and that Israel has since relentlessly, criminally expanded. They view Sinwar’s death, after a recent string of high-profile assassinations, as the latest vindication of Netanyahu’s slash-and-burn policy – even though it will inevitably backfire eventually. His next target? Iran.
What is Netanyahu thinking? He’s aiming for maximum strength, reach and leverage, in part to protect himself politically down the line. Israel has intensified military operations in northern Gaza even though Hamas is decapitated, disorganised and reduced to random acts of resistance. As usual, he’s happy to take the international flak resulting from high civilian casualties in devastated places such as Jabalia. Why? Because while he has no coherent plan for the “day after” in Gaza, Netanyahu is bent on maximising Israeli control and his own position prior to the day when he, not Joe Biden or anyone else, decides to stop shooting.
Netanyahu has rejected the advice of Israeli military chiefs, as well as from the Americans, that Sinwar’s killing should be exploited to get a hostage deal, Haaretz reported. A senior Israeli hostage negotiator told the paper: “To a large extent, we’re in the same situation. The assassination didn’t create flexibility. The goals of the war haven’t changed with regard to ending Hamas’s rule. Consequently, the orders given to the defence establishment also haven’t changed.” On Hamas’s side, too, there was no shift, the negotiator said.
Similar Israeli intransigence is evident in Lebanon, where airstrikes on Beirut and other cities, and territorial advances, have intensified since the killing of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. On Monday Israeli forces extended their strikes to non-military targets.
In a sign of his contempt for the peacemakers, Netanyahu has shown no compunction about taking his war to the UN, both politically – last month he delivered a shamefully offensive, bellicose speech to the general assembly – and militarily, through attacks on Unifil, the UN force in Lebanon. Peacekeepers have been injured. Lebanon’s army, another non-combatant force, has been hit too.
Amos Hochstein, the US peace envoy, who arrived in Beirut on Monday, is pushing for a ceasefire on the basis of UN security council resolution 1701, which established the dividing line between the two sides in the 2006 Lebanon war. There is talk of creating a new international force to secure the Israel-Lebanon border. Meanwhile Israel is said to be demanding a future right to re-intervene in the country, on the ground and in the air, whenever it feels threatened.
These latter demands are unacceptable to any sovereign state, however enfeebled. But they reflect the Israeli leader’s overall approach. As in Gaza, so in Lebanon. Netanyahu, knowing he cannot resist international pressure indefinitely, appears intent on doing as much damage to Hezbollah, militarily and organisationally, as he possibly can, while he can, and gaining as much ground, pending an end to hostilities on favourable terms, preferably dictated by him.
It’s impossible not to feel sorry for Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state. In pursuit of Biden’s delusional belief that Sinwar’s killing is an opportunity, and not another milestone on the road to hell, Blinken has been ordered to undertake yet another round of what the Americans amusingly call Middle East peacemaking this week. He arrived in Tel Aviv today as air raid sirens sounded, with Hezbollah claiming to have bombed the city.
But Blinken carries no sticks, only carrots – and Netanyahu is a carnivore. For Netanyahu, talks with Blinken mean listening to what he has to say, agreeing it’s a good idea, then carrying on regardless as soon as his visitor’s back is turned.
Number one reality check: the main focus of Blinken’s trip is not Gaza or even Lebanon. It’s about limiting the targets, destructive power and escalatory, possibly nuclear-related madness of Israel’s imminent retaliatory strike against Iran – following Tehran’s 181 ballistic missile attack earlier this month. Number two reality check: Blinken and Netanyahu both know that Biden will not seriously try to rein in Israel before the 5 November US election. There will be no arms cut-off, no punitive sanctions that could lose votes for Democrats.
Biden’s biggest fear right now is an explosive, out-of-control confrontation between Iran and Israel, this week or next, that sucks US forces into another Middle East quagmire just before voters choose between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The US election is Netanyahu’s true horizon. This is what he’s looking towards. This is why, unchecked, he will continue to do whatever he likes, and more so, in both Gaza and Lebanon for the next two weeks at least.
If Harris wins, the US may be better placed to impose terms, given that Harris ostensibly feels strongly about the humanitarian cost of the war – though doing so will require the political will that is currently lacking. If victory goes to Trump, a likeminded hard-right, anti-Palestinian hawk, Netanyahu will be able to cash in his chips when he chooses, insisting from his current position of strength on the timing, terms and shape of any truces and subsequent longer-term settlement.
This is what Netanyahu is thinking, this is why he will not contemplate a ceasefire now. Except neither he nor anyone else knows what Iran will do if it is attacked on the alarming scale implied by leaked US briefing papers. Netanyahu the brutal, reckless chancer is taking his visceral, endless brinkmanship too far. In the coming days, his murderous game may finally blow up in his and Israel’s face.
Simon Tisdall is the Observer’s foreign affairs commentator
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