The 1991 AFL season started on 22 March and for Collingwood it began with a 12-goal win. But their season ended up being one of the more notable – and in some cases literal – premiership hangovers. For Leigh Matthews, alarm bells started ringing when a player yelled out in a scratch match “come on fellas, let’s show ‘em how good we are” (hardly Muhammad Ali-like braggadocio). For the rest of us, the fact that Collingwood players were propping up every bar west of The Burvale was a tell-tale sign.

These days, as we creep closer to playing for four points in summer, a footy club can find itself in full-blown crisis mode by 22 March. That will be this week’s narrative following Collingwood’s third loss in a row last night when they were downed by St Kilda at the MCG. Whether they’re flying or floundering, Collingwood always invites overreaction and the lead into this game was another example. This week there were serious discussions, by adults who vote at elections, about whether giving a low-five to a teammate in the middle of the ground was a sign of hubris. Expect that level of discourse to continue.

But something is clearly amiss. This Collingwood side is flat, completely out of form and may well have been worked out. In this competition, and at this time of year especially, if you’re even 5% off the pace, you’re in big trouble. When you’re uncertain and vulnerable, the last man you want plotting your demise is Ross Lyon. He excels at probing, exposing and disarming. His teams are exceptionally well drilled and disciplined. After a strange and error strewn first half, his Saints outworked, outnumbered and ran Collingwood ragged.

From back to front, there’s a disconnect with this Magpie side. They’re not sticking their tackles, hitting their targets and striking the right balance between risk and reward. The key to McRae’s Collingwood has always been its backline and right now their rolling defensive zone is confused, reactive and exploitable. They desperately miss Nathan Murphy. A month ago, Scott Pendlebury told The Age how important Murphy is to their system, how he allows Moore and Howe to roam while he “picks up the pieces a bit”.

Without him, Moore is a bit unmoored. Despite being injured and at not at the top of his game in the latter part of the 2023 season, he made so many defensive spoils at key moments. He was always the one prepared to work that little bit harder to impact a contest. It was the system around him that allowed that. As willing as he was last night, he’s still second guessing himself. It’s had a knock-on effect. The mad gusto of their play, that Collingwood cavalry charge that once started from deep in defence, has stalled.

All through that Collingwood run that stretches right back to the middle of the 2022 season, there was always the nagging question – is this actually a great team? Is this a team for the long haul? They won one of the best Grand Finals we’ve seen. They prevailed in some of the most thrilling games of the past few decades. But they’ve always been a team that’s worked around its limitations.

There’s always been a team that’s ridden its luck, that’s walked the highwire, that’s invited its opposition – “if you’re good enough, and ballsy enough, there’s a way through us.” Melbourne, GWS and Brisbane all saw the way last year, but didn’t have the nerve, or the luck, or the talent, to pull it off. All three opponents in 2024 have been good enough so far. All three margins have flattered Collingwood. And all three results suggest this Collingwood side has been studied and solved, and that the competition has improved markedly around them.

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The season has never been longer. As Carlton and GWS demonstrated last year, you can make a long run from well back in the field. Hawthorn (four wins from their first eight games in 2015), Richmond (seven wins from their first 13 in 2019) and Geelong (five wins from their first 9 in 2022), didn’t exactly fly the gates.

In an extended season, 0-3 is a significant, but not insurmountable handicap. But they have to find another way. For periods of 2022 and 2023, it seemed like every Collingwood win was an event, a miracle, a heist. It required total cohesion, high energy, an almost messianic belief in their ability to roll over the top of teams, and Nick Daicos. You can’t keep living your footballing life like that.

Craig McRae and his Magpies have been so good at solving problems on the run. His problems now are not hubris, nor summer benders, nor too much time watching their own highlights films. Instead, he and his Pies are staring down the rude reality that, in a season that’s never been longer, in a league that’s never been more even and competitive, it’s never been harder to be the hunted. Only the true greats can back up year after year and Collingwood, as exhilarating and as admirable as they’ve been, has never been that team.