Crime in the US fell significantly in 2023, according to new FBI data, with a 13% decline in murder and drops in reported violent crime and reported property offenses.
Both robbery and aggravated assault dropped by 5% from 2022, the FBI data shows, while all violent crime declined by 6%.
However, the statistics are based on figures collected from only 79% of law enforcement agencies in the US. Experts have previously warned that data can be “patchy” given inconsistency in reporting by the local agencies who supply the numbers. And the new stats are unaudited as the FBI is not scheduled to release its official figures and analysis concerning crime in 2023 until this upcoming October.
The figures come as Republicans have made crime a central issue ahead of the November presidential election. Donald Trump has repeatedly talked about murder and violent crime at the former president’s campaign rallies, and Republicans have claimed crime committed by migrants is on the rise.
“In May 2021, the justice department launched our violent crime reduction strategy aimed at addressing the spike in violent crime that occurred during the pandemic,” said Merrick Garland, the attorney general, in a statement.
“Since then, our prosecutors, agents, and grantmaking experts have worked in close partnership with police departments and communities across the country to go after the recidivists and gangs that are responsible for the greatest violence; to seize illegal guns and deadly drugs; to make critical investments in hiring more law enforcement officers; and to fund evidence-based, community violence intervention initiatives.”
The data are based on the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program, which collects crime statistics from local law enforcement agencies.
Participation in the program is voluntary, however, which means not all crime reports are collected. And many experts generally say that crime levels fluctuate for reasons that are unclear, and they are not always influenced in the short term in any meaningful way by government policies or intervention.
The figures released on Tuesday are based on data collected from 15,199 of 19,152 law enforcement agencies, the FBI said.
Experts previously told the Guardian that the FBI’s findings should be viewed with caution given the incomplete information.
“You miss the full story when you have incomplete and patchy data,” Insha Rahman, vice-president of advocacy and partnerships at Vera Institute of Justice, told the Guardian last year.
The Appeal, a news organization which focuses on the criminal legal system, has also pointed out that 50% of violent crimes, and 70% of property crimes, are never reported to the police – meaning those crimes will be missed in the data.
Nonetheless, the prominent New Orleans-based crime analyst Jeff Asher told NBC News in an article published on Tuesday that the preliminary numbers were encouraging.
“It suggests that when we get the final data in October, we will have seen likely the largest one-year decline in murder that has ever been recorded,” Asher said.
Asher also told NBC it was possible that local governments’ managing to resume certain anti-crime initiatives that were interrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic may have had a hand in the reduction shown in the FBI’s preliminary data.
Earlier this month, Trump claimed falsely that “migrant violence is leading to the worst crime wave in history” as Republicans have sought to accuse Democrats of being soft on crime.
In his State of the Union speech on 7 March, Joe Biden remarked that his administration had made “the largest investment in public safety ever”, as he said crime rates had fallen.
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