The depth of talent in women’s basketball makes this one of the most anticipated NCAA tournaments to date. Perhaps the only constant among the top teams this season was South Carolina, which has been unwavering atop the rankings since the second week of the season and is the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. The next tier’s teams have moved up and down in the rankings with no clear No. 2 emerging, but all are a threat to topple the Gamecocks. There are plenty of national championship contenders, but here are the five that are most likely to cut down the nets in Cleveland on April 7.
South Carolina
South Carolina enters the NCAA tournament undefeated for the second consecutive season and is the runaway favorite to take home the title for the third time. The Gamecocks’ average margin of victory of 29.8 points leads the country. They did show some vulnerability in the SEC tournament, where they were just a buzzer-beating three-pointer (the first made three of Kamilla Cardoso’s career) away from being sent home by Tennessee in the semifinals.
South Carolina has proved to be elite on the defensive end, holding its opponents to a nation-best 0.64 points per play. The Gamecocks have also improved their offensive attack since last season, in large part because of their proficiency from beyond the arc. South Carolina boasts the country’s third-best three-point percentage, a significant improvement compared with last season, when it ranked No. 170. It adds up to an offensive rating of 114.9 points per 100 possessions, the program’s best during Coach Dawn Staley’s tenure.
Oregon transfer Te-Hina Paopao has been a main driver of the offensive resurgence, shooting a career-high 47 percent from three-point range this season. She and Cardoso also bring experience to lead a relatively young Gamecocks squad. The team’s young pieces, most notably SEC tournament most outstanding player MiLaysia Fulwiley (11.8 points per game), add the depth needed for another deep March run.
South Carolina enters the NCAA tournament undefeated for the second consecutive season and is the runaway favorite to take home the title for the third time. The Gamecocks’ average margin of victory of 29.8 points leads the country. They did show some vulnerability in the SEC tournament, where they were just a buzzer-beating three-pointer (the first made three of Kamilla Cardoso’s career) away from being sent home by Tennessee in the semifinals.
South Carolina has proved to be elite on the defensive end, holding its opponents to a nation-best 0.64 points per play. The Gamecocks have also improved their offensive attack since last season, in large part because of their proficiency from beyond the arc. South Carolina boasts the country’s third-best three-point percentage, a significant improvement compared with last season, when it ranked No. 170. It adds up to an offensive rating of 114.9 points per 100 possessions, the program’s best during Coach Dawn Staley’s tenure.
Oregon transfer Te-Hina Paopao has been a main driver of the offensive resurgence, shooting a career-high 47 percent from three-point range this season. She and Cardoso also bring experience to lead a relatively young Gamecocks squad. The team’s young pieces, most notably SEC tournament most outstanding player MiLaysia Fulwiley (11.8 points per game), add the depth needed for another deep March run.
Iowa
Caitlin Clark has been at the center of the NCAA women’s basketball conversation this season, and her seemingly limitless offensive range places Iowa in the tier of title contenders. Last season, Clark strung together arguably the most impressive individual performance in NCAA tournament history, averaging more than 30 points per game to lead the Hawkeyes to the national championship game before they fell short against LSU.
Clark has accomplished almost everything imaginable at the college level, including breaking the NCAA scoring record this season, but the one thing missing from her résumé is a national championship. Getting there will take another heroic run from Clark, and her scoring (a career-high 31.9 points per game this season) will be a huge part of that. Perhaps more important are her nation-leading 8.9 assists per game and her ability to facilitate the Hawkeyes’ offense. Iowa is at its best when Clark is able to take advantage of the defensive attention she draws and find an outlet to an open Gabbie Marshall or Kate Martin on the perimeter or Hannah Stuelke in the post.
If the Hawkeyes fall short, it’s likely to be because Clark’s offensive dominance can’t overcome her team’s below-average defense. Iowa is allowing 93 points per 100 possessions on the season, which ranks in the 41st percentile.
Caitlin Clark has been at the center of the NCAA women’s basketball conversation this season, and her seemingly limitless offensive range places Iowa in the tier of title contenders. Last season, Clark strung together arguably the most impressive individual performance in NCAA tournament history, averaging more than 30 points per game to lead the Hawkeyes to the national championship game before they fell short against LSU.
Clark has accomplished almost everything imaginable at the college level, including breaking the NCAA scoring record this season, but the one thing missing from her résumé is a national championship. Getting there will take another heroic run from Clark, and her scoring (a career-high 31.9 points per game this season) will be a huge part of that. Perhaps more important are her nation-leading 8.9 assists per game and her ability to facilitate the Hawkeyes’ offense. Iowa is at its best when Clark is able to take advantage of the defensive attention she draws and find an outlet to an open Gabbie Marshall or Kate Martin on the perimeter or Hannah Stuelke in the post.
If the Hawkeyes fall short, it’s likely to be because Clark’s offensive dominance can’t overcome her team’s below-average defense. Iowa is allowing 93 points per 100 possessions on the season, which ranks in the 41st percentile.
Stanford
The Pac-12 has unquestionably been the top conference this season, with three teams ranked in the top six of the latest Associated Press poll. Its regular season champion, Stanford, is right in the mix for a trip to Cleveland for the Final Four.
The Cardinal failed to win the Pac-12 title after a quiet night from its backcourt against Southern California in the conference tournament final. If Stanford is going to end up on top in April, it will need Hannah Jump, a career 40 percent perimeter shooter, to deliver down the stretch of her fifth and final season.
That said, the frontcourt makes this Cardinal team championship-caliber. Expected consensus all-American Cameron Brink (17.8 points, 12.0 rebounds per game) and Kiki Iriafen (18.6, 11.0) are as fearsome a duo as any in the country at 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-3, respectively. Their presence in the paint has made Stanford one of the nation’s best defensive teams. Stanford has held its opponents to shooting just 38.3 percent on two-pointers this season. Additionally, the Cardinal ranks in the top 25 nationally in blocked shots and the rate at which it collects both offensive and defensive rebounds.
The Pac-12 has unquestionably been the top conference this season, with three teams ranked in the top six of the latest Associated Press poll. Its regular season champion, Stanford, is right in the mix for a trip to Cleveland for the Final Four.
The Cardinal failed to win the Pac-12 title after a quiet night from its backcourt against Southern California in the conference tournament final. If Stanford is going to end up on top in April, it will need Hannah Jump, a career 40 percent perimeter shooter, to deliver down the stretch of her fifth and final season.
That said, the frontcourt makes this Cardinal team championship-caliber. Expected consensus all-American Cameron Brink (17.8 points, 12.0 rebounds per game) and Kiki Iriafen (18.6, 11.0) are as fearsome a duo as any in the country at 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-3, respectively. Their presence in the paint has made Stanford one of the nation’s best defensive teams. Stanford has held its opponents to shooting just 38.3 percent on two-pointers this season. Additionally, the Cardinal ranks in the top 25 nationally in blocked shots and the rate at which it collects both offensive and defensive rebounds.
LSU
LSU features a similarly dominant frontcourt duo in its quest to repeat as national champion in 2024. The Tigers reloaded in the offseason to pair last year’s Final Four most outstanding player, Angel Reese, with two of the highest-profile transfers in Hailey Van Lith (Louisville) and Aneesah Morrow (DePaul). However, a season-opening loss to Colorado and a disappointing 5-3 start to conference play have allowed the Tigers to fly a little under the radar this season.
Fast-forward to March, and LSU has won 10 of its past 11 games, with the lone loss coming by single digits against South Carolina in the SEC championship game. The Tigers were one of just four teams to play the Gamecocks closely in the regular season, and they were able to replicate that performance in the conference tournament with Reese, Morrow and Van Lith combining for 48 points.
The Tigers also rank among the top 10 in both the Her Hoop Stats offensive and defensive ratings, pace-adjusted measures of a team’s offensive and defensive strength that control for opponent quality. That’s a championship formula: The last dozen national champions (including LSU last season) have ranked in the top 10 in both metrics.
LSU features a similarly dominant frontcourt duo in its quest to repeat as national champion in 2024. The Tigers reloaded in the offseason to pair last year’s Final Four most outstanding player, Angel Reese, with two of the highest-profile transfers in Hailey Van Lith (Louisville) and Aneesah Morrow (DePaul). However, a season-opening loss to Colorado and a disappointing 5-3 start to conference play have allowed the Tigers to fly a little under the radar this season.
Fast-forward to March, and LSU has won 10 of its past 11 games, with the lone loss coming by single digits against South Carolina in the SEC championship game. The Tigers were one of just four teams to play the Gamecocks closely in the regular season, and they were able to replicate that performance in the conference tournament with Reese, Morrow and Van Lith combining for 48 points.
The Tigers also rank among the top 10 in both the Her Hoop Stats offensive and defensive ratings, pace-adjusted measures of a team’s offensive and defensive strength that control for opponent quality. That’s a championship formula: The last dozen national champions (including LSU last season) have ranked in the top 10 in both metrics.
Connecticut
Connecticut similarly fits the criteria of ranking among the top teams on both ends of the floor. Despite the Huskies failing to win any of their marquee matchups this season, including an 18-point road loss to South Carolina last month, the numbers indicate they are again among the top teams entering the tournament.
Five players have suffered season-ending injuries, leaving U-Conn. with a short rotation. While last season’s shorthanded team became the first Huskies squad that failed to reach the Final Four since 2007, this group has a healthy Paige Bueckers, who could be a difference-maker. The last time we saw Bueckers in March Madness in 2022, she hung 27 points on N.C. State in a double-overtime thriller to lift the Huskies to the Final Four. Bueckers carried that team to the national title game, all while having just returned from a knee injury in late February.
Bueckers is joined by forward Aaliyah Edwards, who averaged 20 points per game in February. While the pair failed to simultaneously fire on all cylinders in U-Conn.’s early season matchups, they have been in sync as of late, and Connecticut is now playing its best basketball of the season.
Megan Gauer is a bracketologist and contributing writer for herhoopstats.com.
Connecticut similarly fits the criteria of ranking among the top teams on both ends of the floor. Despite the Huskies failing to win any of their marquee matchups this season, including an 18-point road loss to South Carolina last month, the numbers indicate they are again among the top teams entering the tournament.
Five players have suffered season-ending injuries, leaving U-Conn. with a short rotation. While last season’s shorthanded team became the first Huskies squad that failed to reach the Final Four since 2007, this group has a healthy Paige Bueckers, who could be a difference-maker. The last time we saw Bueckers in March Madness in 2022, she hung 27 points on N.C. State in a double-overtime thriller to lift the Huskies to the Final Four. Bueckers carried that team to the national title game, all while having just returned from a knee injury in late February.
Bueckers is joined by forward Aaliyah Edwards, who averaged 20 points per game in February. While the pair failed to simultaneously fire on all cylinders in U-Conn.’s early season matchups, they have been in sync as of late, and Connecticut is now playing its best basketball of the season.
Megan Gauer is a bracketologist and contributing writer for herhoopstats.com.