Donald Trump has not only run the Republican primaries like an incumbent, but on occasion, he gets to play-act the role of president right at home. On Friday, he hosted Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister,, for a quasi-state visit at his Mar-a-Lago estate, described by discerning critics as “the palace of a CEO-president-king, done up in the opulent dictator-chic favored by third-world kleptocrats”.
Orbán has spent the past 14 years making his country into a kleptocratic autocracy right in the middle of the European Union. Obviously, Trump does not need general guidance from Orbán; he is already endowed with authoritarian instincts. But, for all the obvious differences between Orbán’s small European nation and the US, Orbán’s rule holds concrete lessons which the American right is ready to adopt. Given the excitement with which Trump acolytes have been promoting Orbán – and their frequent pilgrimages to Budapest as the capital of “national conservatism” – Hungary offers a preview of a second Trump term.
Lesson number one: if you want to control the country, you must completely control your own party. After losing two successive national elections at the beginning of this century, it looked like Orbán’s career might be finished. Instead, he managed to govern his Fidesz party with an iron grip. It is not an accident that far-right populist leaders everywhere treat their parties as personal vehicles, with no real internal debates, let alone dissent, tolerated.
That has consequences for a political system as a whole: the leader faces no restraints from political heavyweights who are fellow partisans – and who would have credibility with followers – when acting on the national stage. By 2020, Trump had already been transforming the Republican party into a kind of personality cult; that’s one reason nobody stopped him on the road to January 6. Friday marked another step in the total subjugation of the party, as Trump installed his daughter-in-law as co-chair (creating a political family business on the side).
Of course, only Trump says the quiet part out loud and declares his desires for dictatorship; he has been raving about Orbán’s credentials as a “strongman” and a real “boss”. Trump’s acolytes are more guarded. One area where they don’t hold back, however, is education – they keep gushing about “Orbán’s model”. JD Vance, the Republican senator from Ohio, has declared universities “the enemy” and advised that “the closest that conservatives have ever gotten to successfully dealing with leftwing domination of universities is Viktor Orbán’s approach in Hungary”. Supposedly the lesson is not to “eliminate universities, but to give them a choice between survival or taking a much less biased approach to teaching”.
What’s being previewed here? Hungary happens to be the only country in the European Union with a systematic and structural violation of academic freedom. There it’s the government that decides what counts as an academic subject and what doesn’t (gender studies does not, of course). Orbán has also forced one university to close its doors for evidently political reasons.
The ideal is not only to assert control over education and culture but to make the state as such into a partisan instrument. Like other far-right populists, Orbán has replaced career civil servants with loyalists – a lesson US rightwingers are picking up eagerly. Before paying homage to the autocrat-in-exile in Palm Beach, Orbán spoke to the Heritage Foundation, the thinktank that has laid out with chilling precision a Trumpist plan for hijacking what should be a neutral bureaucracy in the name of destroying “the deep state”.
Orbán has been Putin’s ally inside the EU, trying to block sanctions and withhold support for Ukraine whenever possible. On the surface, the affinity is ideological: both supposedly believe in “strong families” (never mind how Putin treats his own family, or possibly multiple families) and the assertion of “national sovereignty” in defending borders (never mind whether that involves invading other countries).
Yet the relationship is ultimately transactional. Orbán will reach out to whichever power he can – including China and Iran – to bolster his regime at home. The “national conservatism” show, including its American Putin fanboys, is patently useful because it gets critics fixated on issues like same-sex marriage instead of corruption and the destruction of democracy. Trump’s transactional approach was evident during his time in office and, if re-elected, he’ll probably double down on it in a second term.
Whether Trump has learned from his experience of the presidency is a hard question. What’s not hard is the question of whether Trump is eager for retribution. Orbán felt it a grave injustice that he lost the 2002 elections; when he returned to office in 2010, he did so with plenty of resentment and a strategy for never letting go of power again. It would be wrong to extrapolate too much from a country with a smaller population than Pennsylvania. But here the parallel between two politicians who Trump himself declared “twins” couldn’t be clearer.
Jan-Werner Müller is a professor of politics at Princeton University. He is also a Guardian US columnist