Bashar al-Assad’s downfall came not with a bang but a whimper. The Syrian dictator reportedly fled his home in the wake of a blitzkrieg advance by a coalition of anti-government rebels. By Sunday morning he was gone – leaving armed groups as the country’s dominant political players. A spirit of anti-Assad sentiment surged across Syria, manifesting itself through displays of both celebration and defiance. The question now is whether this unleashed energy – brutally suppressed by fear and authoritarian control – will become a unifying force in building a new nation or, rather, a precursor to deeper divisions.

The fall of the House of Assad, which has ruled Syria for more than half a century, should be a warning to dictatorial regimes. Mr Assad’s departure underscores a broader truth: societies cannot indefinitely tolerate systemic abuses, such as state-sponsored propaganda, corruption and violence. The fish rots from the head down. Mr Assad’s Syrian state collapsed from within, having spent more than a decade pursuing a reign of terror that only fuelled the very unrest it sought to suppress. The regime’s collapse raises pressing questions about Syria’s future. With weak institutions and a frail civil society, the risk of disintegration looms large.

Syria’s prospects depend on both internal and external forces, and notably on Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaida offshoot turned moderate Islamist faction. Credited with Mr Assad’s overthrow, Mr Jolani drove the strategic shift from jihadism to national liberation. In 2021, he declared that he had no intention of waging war against the west, and for the past five years he has overseen a semi-technocratic government in Idlib province for 3 million people under Turkish protection. HTS has avoided extreme sharia interpretations, but remains designated a terrorist group. Critics say it is corrupt and intolerant of dissent. However, Mr Jolani’s outreach to tribes, minorities and former foes has bolstered his national legitimacy, while even Moscow – once Mr Assad’s protector – may engage to secure its military bases.

Mr Jolani relies on allies, including the Turkish-backed militia groups collectively called the Syrian National Army, which has a thuggish reputation. Re-elected on a pledge to return 3 million refugees, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, seeks stability in Syria, but fears that US-backed Kurdish regions in Syria may stir autonomy demands at home. Israel sees an Islamist-led Damascus as a threat, but finds comfort in Hezbollah’s inability to defend the Assad regime, as it prioritises the defence of its Lebanese bases. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with their financial resources, could aid Syria’s reconstruction, but their past support for Mr Assad complicates their role. Encouragingly, Arab leaders said they would seek to avoid reigniting a 13-year-old civil war after talks in Qatar.

Syria will never be the same. Ordinary Syrians have endured unimaginable horrors under the Assad regime. But they have written this chapter of history. Their newfound freedom is shadowed by the daunting task of rebuilding lives and infrastructure. A shared hope to avoid violent vendettas must guide efforts toward a just settlement. The Syrian people were often forsaken. In this moment of fragile hope, the world must not fail them again. A concerted international effort toward political stability, reconciliation and reconstruction is essential to ensure their sacrifices lead to a lasting peace.

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